A Note on Minimax Testing and Confidence Intervals in Moment Inequality Models

This note uses a simple example to show how moment inequality models used in the empirical economics literature lead to general minimax relative efficiency comparisons. The main point is that such models involve inference on a low dimensional parameter, which leads naturally to a definition of "distance" that, in full generality, would be arbitrary in minimax testing problems. This definition of distance is justified by the fact that it leads to a duality between minimaxity of confidence intervals and tests, which does not hold for other definitions of distance. Thus, the use of moment inequalities for inference in a low dimensional parametric model places additional structure on the testing problem, which leads to stronger conclusions regarding minimax relative efficiency than would otherwise be possible

Automatic speech recognition in air-ground data link

In the present air traffic system, information presented to the transport aircraft cockpit crew may originate from a variety of sources and may be presented to the crew in visual or aural form, either through cockpit instrument displays or, most often, through voice communication. Voice radio communications are the most error prone method for air-ground data link. Voice messages can be misstated or misunderstood and radio frequency congestion can delay or obscure important messages. To prevent proliferation, a multiplexed data link display can be designed to present information from multiple data link sources on a shared cockpit display unit (CDU) or multi-function display (MFD) or some future combination of flight management and data link information. An aural data link which incorporates an automatic speech recognition (ASR) system for crew response offers several advantages over visual displays. The possibility of applying ASR to the air-ground data link was investigated. The first step was to review current efforts in ASR applications in the cockpit and in air traffic control and evaluated their possible data line application. Next, a series of preliminary research questions is to be developed for possible future collaboration

Unbiased Instrumental Variables Estimation Under Known First-Stage Sign

We derive mean-unbiased estimators for the structural parameter in instrumental variables models with a single endogenous regressor where the sign of one or more first stage coefficients is known. In the case with a single instrument, there is a unique non-randomized unbiased estimator based on the reduced-form and first-stage regression estimates. For cases with multiple instruments we propose a class of unbiased estimators and show that an estimator within this class is efficient when the instruments are strong. We show numerically that unbiasedness does not come at a cost of increased dispersion in models with a single instrument: in this case the unbiased estimator is less dispersed than the 2SLS estimator. Our finite-sample results apply to normal models with known variance for the reduced-form errors, and imply analogous results under weak instrument asymptotics with an unknown error distribution

Optimal inference in a class of regression models

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the regression function is known to lie in a convex function class, which covers most smoothness and/or shape assumptions used in econometrics. We derive finite-sample optimal CIs and sharp efficiency bounds under normal errors with known variance. We show that these results translate to uniform (over the function class) asymptotic results when the error distribution is not known. When the function class is centrosymmetric, these efficiency bounds imply that minimax CIs are close to efficient at smooth regression functions. This implies, in particular, that it is impossible to form CIs that are tighter using data-dependent tuning parameters, and maintain coverage over the whole function class. We specialize our results to inference on the regression discontinuity parameter, and illustrate them in simulations and an empirical application.Comment: 39 pages plus supplementary material

New structural approach for determining load carrying capability of filament wound composite materials

Metal lined boron and graphite composites exhibit high strength and minimum weight, making them superior to aluminum cylindrical shell structures and to steel or aluminum constructed pressure vessels. S glass filament-epoxy resin matrix with aluminum liner is suitable for cryogenic tanks